Wednesday, 14 May 2014

Fresh selling seen in Natural Gas, open interest up 6.26%

Naturalgas settled down -0.31% at 259.10 dipped on Wednesday as investors jumped to the sidelines to await the release of Thursday's weekly supply report. 

Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ending May 2 rose by 74 billion cubic feet, above forecasts for an increase of 71 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.055 trillion cubic feet, an 11-year low.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 80 billion cubic feet to 100 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is a build of 82 billion cubic feet. Producers would need to add 2.6 trillion to 2.9 trillion cubic feet to storage by November 1 to meet typical winter demand. 

Updated weather forecasting models continued to for seasonably mild weather over much of the Midwest and Northeast for the next two weeks, which was likely to lower heating demand. Approximately 52% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department. 

Mild springtime temperatures weren't forecast to rise high enough to hike demand for air conditioning, which would require power generators to burn more natural gas to meet demand. 

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.26% to settled at 5767 while prices down -0.8 rupee, now Naturalgas is getting support at 257.8 and below same could see a test of 256.4 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 261.5, a move above could see prices testing 263.8.

Trading Ideas:
--Naturalgas trading range for the day is 256.4-263.8.
--Natural gas dropped as investors jumped to the sidelines to await the release of Thursday's weekly supply report.
--Natural gas seen under pressure as a weakening demand outlook combined with receding concerns over tight inventories weighed.
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Thursday, 8 May 2014

MCX Crude Oil may witness mixed path can 5960-6040 range

Crude Oil may open on mixed path as it can move in range of 5960-6040 in MCX. 

West Texas Intermediate headed for its first weekly advance since April as crude stockpiles shrank for the first time in more than a month in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer.

Brent was steady in London. In Ukraine, the government and its U.S. and European allies say there’s no sign of a Russian pullback from the border. 

They accuse President Vladimir Putin of fomenting separatist unrest in eastern Ukraine and warn that he may follow the annexation of Crimea in March with another land grab. 

Natural gas may plunge lower tracking subdued weak overseas cues as it can test 270 in MCX. Natural gas futures fell the most in 10 weeks after a government report showed a bigger-than-forecast U.S. inventory increase.

Gas dropped to a threeweek low as the Energy Information Administration said stockpiles rose 74 billion cubic feet in the week ended May 2 to 1.055 trillion.
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MCX Gold may trade 28350-28800 range, Silver 41200-41900

Bullion counter is expected to remain on subdued tracking weak overseas cues. On domestic bourses stronger local currency can cap the upside. 

Gold can move in range of 28350-28800 while Silver can hover in range of 41200-41900 in MCX. 

Gold futures declined for a third straight day as gains in equities curb demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. 

Gold rose 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Federal Reserve bought debt and cut interest rates to a record in a bid to boost the economy. 

Fed officials trimmed stimulus last week for the fourth consecutive meeting and are on track to halt buying in the second half of 2014.
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Wednesday, 7 May 2014

Yen may trade higher on 0.5%

The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.5 percent yesterday on the back of weak market sentiments in later part of the trade which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency.

Further, less volatility was observed as the banks were closed yesterday on the eve of Greenery Day. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 101.48 and closed at 101.67 on Tuesday.

We expect Japanese Yen to trade higher today on account of rise in risk aversion in market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency.
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