MCX Crude Oil may trade 5940-6020 range, Natural Gas 278-287

Crude oil may open in red zone tracking weak international markets. Overall it can move in range of 5940-6020 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate slipped for a second day amid speculation crude inventories at a record high expanded further in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. U.S.

Crude supplies have climbed to the highest level since April 1931, monthly government data going back to 1920 show.

Reports before 1976 were based on Bureau of Mines figures, according to the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

Natural gas may move in range of 278-287 in MCX.
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Gold market rises on short covering, support at 28861

Gold settled up 0.22% at 28935 rose to a three-week high as simmering tensions in Ukraine fuelled buying. Market remained cautious on whether the gains can be sustained, however, as outflows from the top physical gold exchange-traded fund continued to indicate bearish sentiment.

Bullion's safe-haven appeal increased after news that a street battle between supporters and opponents of Russia in southern Ukraine over the weekend killed at least 42 people, including dozens of pro-Russian protesters incinerated in a burning building, bringing the country closer to war.

Global economic uncertainty after data showed a contraction in Chinese manufacturing that renewed concerns about a slowing economy in China also supported gold, and the market largely ignored a report showing upbeat U.S. service-sector activities. Also the SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell 2.70 tonnes to 782.85tns on Friday, bringing its outflow for the week to nearly 10 tonnes.

On Friday, the metal fell to a one-week low of $1,276.60 after strong U.S. jobs data. But it reversed the losses to end the day up 1.3% on a sharp increase in the number of people dropping out of the workforce and rising Ukraine tensions. Still, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell 2.70 tonnes to 782.85 tonnes on Friday - its third straight session of losses.

Last week alone, the fund saw nearly 10 tonnes in outflows. Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in gold futures and options, as expectations of a stimulus cut by the Fed dented the metal's appeal as a hedge, data from the CFTC showed on Friday.

Technically market is under short covering and getting support at 28861 and below same could see a test of 28786 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 29025, a move above could see prices testing 29114.

Trading Ideas:
--Gold trading range for the day is 28786-29114.
--Gold jumped on short-covering and as rising tensions and violence in Ukraine burnished the metal's safe-haven appeal.
--Investors remained cautious as outflows from the top physical gold exchange-traded fund continued to indicate bearish sentiment.
--Global economic uncertainty after data showed a contraction in Chinese manufacturing that renewed concerns about a slowing economy also supported gold.
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Zinc may trade 121.1-124.7 range, gains at 123.50

Zinc settled up 1.02% at 123.50 fluctuated in a wide range during China's May Day holiday, rising initially before falling. LME zinc prices opened at USD 2,016.8/mt last Friday. 

PMIs from eurozone countries in April were mostly stable, and US April non-farm employment rate rose by the most since January 2012, while unemployment rate dropped sharply, supporting LME zinc prices to rise and claw back early day losses, touching the 5-day moving average, and closing at USD 2,042.3/mt, up USD 21.3/mt, or 1.05%. 

Also US nonfarm payrolls released last Friday increased by 288,000 during April, the biggest monthly rise since January 2012 and well above expectations and March’s figures. Meanwhile, the country’s jobless rate also dropped below the US Federal Reserve’s 6.5% threshold to 6.3%, a fresh low last seen in September 2008. In addition, the nonfarm payrolls for March and February also were revised upward sharply from 192,000 and 197,000, to 203,000 and 222,000, respectively. 

These encouraging economic data boosted market sentiment, sending LME base metals up slightly. US labor participation rate for April, however, was reported at only 62.8%, a trough in 30 years. It was also worth noting that the US Fed announced at May’s interest rate meeting to keep federal funds rate unchanged between 0-0.25% and scale back its monthly bond purchases to USD 45 billion. 

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Monday’s report on U.S. service sector activity and Wednesday’s testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on monetary policy and the economy. Now Zinc is getting support at 122.3 and below same could see a test of 121.1 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 124.1, a move above could see prices testing 124.7.

Trading Ideas:
--Zinc trading range for the day is 121.1-124.7.
--Zinc prices gained as encouraging economic data from US zone boosted market sentiment.
--US jobless rate dropped below the US Federal Reserve’s 6.5% threshold to 6.3%, a fresh low last seen in September 2008.
--China’s official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4 in April, up 0.1 percentage point for two straight months but a shade lower than estimates.
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CRUDE CALLS 05-05-2014

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SILVER CALLS 05/05/2014

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GOLD TIPS 05/05/2014

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MCX Crude Oil may trade 5970-6050 range, Natural Gas 276-286

Crude oil may open in green zone tracking bounce back in international markets. Overall it can move in range of 5970-6050 in MCX. Brent swung between gains and losses near a three-day high before data that will probably show manufacturing contracted in China, the worlds second-biggest oil consumer. 

Libya has become the smallest producer in the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after unrest disrupted output and shipments. China will account for about 11 percent of global oil demand this year, compared with 21 percent for the U.S., according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. 

Ukraine sought to dislodge pro-Russian rebels over the weekend from its eastern industrial heartland as violence also spread to Odessa, the country’s most important conduit to the Black Sea after Russia took control of Crimea last month. Natural gas may remain sideways in range of 276-286 in MCX.
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